Encouraged by widespread global fiscal and monetary support and the prospect of recovery in 3Q20, UBP is keeping the highest equity weights of the year and has shifted towards an alpha-focused approach. But as valuations climb and geopolitical risks loom, it has beefed up risk management. While continuing to sit with its highest equity weights of the year, UBP in […]

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Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen called for a revaluation of US monetary policy, suggesting that just one or two more rate hikes could prevent economic overheating in the US. “It makes sense to call a timeout to evaluate policy,” Yellen said, highlighting that labour markets are growing increasingly tighter. “I would anticipate that one or two rate hikes could be needed to […]

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The European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to “deviate” from its normalisation trajectory despite recent corrections in risk assets, Pictet Wealth Management has said. European equities, represented by Euro Stoxx 50, have been hit with a 9.4% decrease over the past one and half months, with the index currently standing at 3,325. Even so, Pictet Wealth Management believes that the […]

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A solid earnings growth outlook and technical indicators have led J. Safra Sarasin to continue to be broadly overweight on global equities in 1H18, despite weighted valuations. What’s more, the pure play says there is a chance the full-year target will be met by 2018’s midway point. Global equities: Full year equity target may be reached by 1H18 The bank advises […]

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J. Safra Sarasin believes that real interest rates in Europe could rise as the market has priced in “a too dovish ECB”. Market consensus is that Europe will fail to bring inflation back to its target, while in comparison, given favourable employment figures and other benign economic data, the US will see an inflation environment and a less accommodative central […]

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Bank of Singapore says that the “unique attraction” of the USD will fade in 2019, as other central banks in developed markets (DMs) – notably the ECB – have joined the tightening monetary policy march. “We see some potential for a short-term bounce as markets are underpricing the probability of US rate hikes, but this is unlikely to be durable […]

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As inflation in Europe is rising, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to tighten its policies moving forward despite the stronger euro, Pictet Wealth Management says. “We think that any core inflation print at or above the August level of 1.2% would be strong enough for the ECB to move ahead with policy normalisation,” the bank said in its […]

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Despite a “slow and bumpy” rise in core inflation in Europe, Pictet Wealth Management expects the ECB’s asset purchases to be scaled down to EUR40 billion in the first half of 2018 before the central bank pulls the plug on its quantitative easing (QE) programme in the second half of 2018. “We would expect a broad commitment to extend QE […]

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With tapering measures looming in Europe and the US, Bank of Singapore says that central banks will hike rates “slowly but surely”, rather than rushing the process. “The main drivers of the global outlook, for the immediate future, is still how markets view the coming actions of the main central banks as they look to (gradually) tighten policy by hiking […]

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DBS says that a withdrawal of quantitative easing is not on the cards in the foreseeable future, particularly on the part of the ECB and BoJ. This comes as global equities grind higher thanks to accommodative monetary policies and upbeat corporate earnings “Both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB) maintained their overall accommodative stance, as […]

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With global equities having moved sideways last week amid policy and political uncertainties, DBS believes that political uncertainty is likely to persist for some time. “The shock UK general election result will create political gridlock for years to come,” the bank says in its latest investment note. Meanwhile, the Singaporean lender says that former FBI director James Comey’s testimony against […]

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Julius Baer believes that the oil surplus will persist for some time, and the bank expects prices will continue to trend sideways. “Rising OPEC oil output fuels doubts about the supply deal’s effectiveness and continues to weigh on prices,” the bank says in its latest investment note. It expects oil prices will trade in the high 40s range rather than […]

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Pictet Wealth Management expects that Europe’s inflation rate will remain relatively stable over the next few months, before gradually edging higher in the second half of the year. “As energy-related base effects continue to fade, we forecast euro area HICP [harmonised index of consumer prices] inflation to hover between 1.3% and 1.6% for the next six months, suggesting that ECB […]

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The global economic recovery has progressed to the point where central banks are now trying to determine appropriate timeframes for scaling back on monetary policy support, according to Bank of Singapore (BoS). “PMIs show that business activity has picked up in every major region over the past six months,” says the bank, citing headline inflation of over 2% in the […]

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Pictet: ECB’s exit strategy like being in an ‘escape room’ Expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise its deposit rate before ending quantitative easing (QE) are growing, says Pictet Wealth Management, which likens the central bank’s potential exit strategy to an “escape room”, wherein success is contingent not only on actions but the order of them. “The ECB’s […]

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Global equities traded higher last week, with the MSCI All-Country World index increasing by 2.99%, due to market optimism
 over monetary policy in Europe and rising expectations of pro-growth policies in the US, according to DBS’ latest investment note. The Singaporean lender points out that the S&P 500 closed 3.08% higher and the MSCI Europe index rose by 4.74% last […]

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The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to taper its asset purchasing programme from the current €80 billion per month, but it remains to be seen whether these cuts will begin in April 2017 or sometime later, according to Bank of Singapore. Positioned for tapering “The [ECB] must be a lot less worried than it was earlier in 2016 when it […]

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Despite steady Eurozone growth that has resulted in a sustained recovery since 2012, Bank of Singapore believes that a formal extension of the QE programme will be announced in December’s policy meeting due to slow inflation. The Eurozone’s recovery has been a positive story. After ECB’s president Draghi committed to do “whatever it takes” to help the economy recover in […]

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Singaporean lender DBS, in its latest outlook note, expects the sideways shuffle of global equities to persist, noting a lack of catalysts to propel any substantial movement. On one hand, DBS points out that markets perceive the global economic environment as more benign due to data emerging out of the US and China. In the US, equity volatility has reduced as Clinton […]

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The European Central Bank’s announcement to include corporate bonds issued in euro by Eurozone non-bank corporations into the existing scope of its quantitative easing program may move pan-European high yield spreads to below 400 bps, says hedge fund platform Lyxor. Fixed income funds, hedge funds utilising credit arbitrage strategies and Global Macro funds are set to benefit, noted Philippe Ferreira, Lyxor […]

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To private banks sourcing income via equity dividend strategies, Pioneer warns of concentration risks from skewed security selection and the bypassed opportunity to participate in capital appreciation. “Traditional income strategies tend to skew to high dividend areas with less exposure to earnings growth and price appreciation in order to fulfil income distribution obligations,” says Fiona English, client portfolio manager at […]

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Despite nearing the closing act with the recent referendum proposal of what’s been dubbed as a “Greek tragedy”, UBS Wealth Management maintains an optimistic stance, advising that investors should see this as a buying opportunity. “Investors should see a sell-off in European equities around this referendum as a buying opportunity,” said Mark Haefele, global CIO, UBS Wealth Management. He says […]

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With the Eurozone finance ministers rejecting proposals for a five-day bailout extension for Greece and Alex Tsipras’ last minute referendum, the likelihood of Greece leaving the eurozone, the “Grexit”, is high. As a result, private banks in Asia are seeing a flurry of activity from high net worth clients holding European equities. “The Greek debt crisis and its potential exit […]

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Despite a subsiding high tide of monetary policies, Barclays believes the recovery of global economies and markets are not expected to derail unless China faces setbacks. The British lender does not view the looming concerns about an imminent rate hike by the Feds and fears of a Grexit as substantial drivers of a global economic derailing but instead believes China […]

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“Clients want long-term views of 12 to 36 months but with the policy-driven markets we are experiencing now, outlooks of three to six months are a more realistic timeframe,” says a head of an advisory in a Hong Kong-based private bank, echoing the sentiments of a number of his peers in Asia who are trying to navigate clients through treacherous […]

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