Wealthy individuals in Asia with US exposure risk being caught out by recent changes in US tax policy, including measures under President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), Jessica Cutrera of Leo Wealth, a Hong Kong-based independent wealth advisor, told Asian Private Banker. “There are a lot of individuals in Greater China and Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia and Thailand, […]

The post “Never advised properly”: Leo Wealth flags US tax risks for Asia’s HNW appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

This is a sponsored article from Schroders. It is time we acknowledge that active investment management is more than stock selection, writes Schroders group chief executive Richard Oldfield. Where is the familiar scepticism toward active management? That was only a few years ago, but the debate has moved on by leagues. The binary poles of active and passive are less […]

The post The old “active vs passive” debate is dead – here’s why appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

This is a sponsored article from BNP Paribas Asset Management.  Marketing Communication – For professional investors only. For institutional investors only. Not for further distribution. James McAlevey, head of global aggregate & absolute return at BNP Paribas Asset Management (BNP Paribas AM), discusses how active unconstrained bonds mitigate risks throughout market cycles. Q1: What’s driving interest in absolute return bond […]

The post Turning volatility into an absolute advantage: Insights from BNP Paribas AM  appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Hong Kong-based independent asset manager (IAM) The Capital Company has announced the completion of its merger with New York-based LeoGroup and Dallas-based BFT Financial Group, forming a wealth advisor overseeing US$4.3 billion in AUM. In 2019, The Capital Company acquired BFT Financial Group to expand its wealth management capabilities in the US. The latest merger has effectively brought the three […]

The post The Capital Company completes merger, eyes wealthy families with US ties appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

2021 will be underpinned by a sustained recovery from the pandemic-induced crisis, according to the Year Ahead outlook by UBS Global Wealth Management (GWM). While Big Tech and healthcare had their moments during the initial market rebound, it may soon be the turn of cyclical and value stocks to follow the rally — in addition to select emerging market (EM) […]

The post 2021 will be a year of continued recovery, on the back of cyclicals and EM laggards: UBS appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

At the time of publication, the 2020 US presidential race still looks as though it could turn out either way. However, the probability of a sweep democratic win has wilted. Investors need to watch their back for a contested election and brace themselves for near-term market turbulence, private bank CIOs advised. As things stand, all eyes are on three states […]

The post The race for the White House: how to be positioned for all possible scenarios appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

After its worst month in a decade in July, the US dollar may get some reprieve and reverse its decline, albeit slightly, believes UBS. On the other hand, US stocks still have room to move up due to poor investor sentiment. Last week, the US dollar index (DXY) recorded its first weekly gain since June, closing fractionally stronger — although […]

The post Greenback likely to consolidate, equities poised for gains: UBS CIO appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

The latest UBS Investor Sentiment Survey has revealed that 75% of investors in Asia are planning to adjust their portfolios based on US election results, more than in any other region. The quarterly survey, which surveyed over 4,000 wealthy investors and business owners across 14 markets in late June and early July, has also discovered that overall, global HNWIs have […]

The post Three out of four HNWIs in Asia will adjust their portfolio based on US election result: UBS GWM appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

The rising and steepening curves of the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout have triggered a nearly month-long risk asset sell-off. How this will close out depends on what happens in the next few weeks, Michael Strobaek at Credit Suisse argued. This past weekend, Italy has reported the largest spike in new infections and death tolls, and a large part […]

The post Next two to four weeks crucial for financial markets: Credit Suisse’s Strobaek appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

UBS Global Wealth Management has increased its overweight to risk assets, adding a tactical overweight to emerging market equities. This followed the perceived reduction in downside risks going into 2020 after China and the US agreed “phase one” of a trade deal over the weekend. “Phase one” means that US will reduce the tariff rate on US$120 billion of Chinese […]

The post UBS more overweight to risk assets after US-China trade deal appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

This week: Noah WM says more opportunities will arise from EM than DM; Credit Suisse PB believes markets overestimating Fed rate cuts; LGT PB plays ‘barbell’ by increasing equities and gold; Pictet WM expects four rate cuts from Fed in 2020; and Standard Chartered PB says gold will benefit from the near-term equity market pullback. More opportunities to arise from EM than DM: […]

The post CIO Weekly – Featuring Noah’s William Ma appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Hong Kong’s role as an “essential gateway” for foreign investments into China will persist so long as capital controls remain, Alastair Campbell, Chairman of Bridger Intelligence, said at a legal forum. Despite private wealth management firms reflecting concerns that further unrest would likely continue to decrease the attractiveness of the city and views that the regulatory opening up of China’s market […]

The post HK an “essential gateway” for China as long as capital controls remain: Alastair Campbell appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Growing more bearish, Hong Kong and Singapore HNWIs are turning to US equities for shelter even though the asset class is recording all-time highs, according to LGT Asia’s chief investment strategist. Stefan Hofer told Asian Private Banker at a media briefing yesterday that, historically, the US equity market has exhibited “very defensive” characteristics, with lower beta than its global counterparts. “They’re […]

The post HNWIs turn to US equities for defensive names: LGT’s Stefan Hofer appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Positive US earnings in the coming quarter or two will be the primary determinant for an equity exposure upgrade, according to Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, which believes the call could trigger momentum. “When our analysts speak, the market listens” “In equities, clients are still more reluctant to build significant positions despite better levels as they already have certain exposure […]

The post “If our US equity call changes, momentum could come back”: Morgan Stanley’s Ernest Chan appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

The Fed’s monetary tightening cycle is likely to peak midway through next year, which will benefit risk assets, particularly US and Asia equities, according to HSBC Private Banking. Fan Cheuk Wan, chief market strategist, Asia, at HSBC Private Banking, said in a media briefing on 17 December that rising rates, to a large extent, have caused the meltdown of traditional markets […]

The post HSBC PB’s Fan: Fed’s tightening cycle to peak mid-2019 appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Growth concerns and a potentially dovish Fed have divided Asia’s wealth managers’ forecasts on the greenback, with more than 60% expecting the USD to weaken against the EUR in the coming 12 months. According to a recent Asian Private Banker survey, 62% of respondents expect the USD to weaken against the EUR in the coming 12 months, with 32% and […]

The post More than 60% of wealth managers expect weaker USD in coming 12 months appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

This week: CreditEase advises investors to shift from capital markets to alts; UBS GWM believes ASEAN will fill the production gap widened by trade tensions; Standard Chartered WM recognises the strong pricing power of the US tech sector; DBS says the healthcare sector offers an “oasis of calm” in a volatile market; and J. Safra Sarasin thinks the declining valuations of European […]

The post CIO Weekly – November 2018 Week 4 appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

US-China trade frictions were cited as the greatest concern for Asian HNWIs’ portfolios, according to 37% of respondents in a recent Asian Private Banker survey, a stark contrast from early 2018 when banks shrugged off the issue as inconsequential posturing. In second and third, respondents cited downside protection (26%) and high market valuation (21%), respectively, as the next most pressing […]

The post US-China trade tensions cited as top concern for Asian HNWIs’ portfolios appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

This week: Standard Chartered Private Bank expects US equities to continue outperforming in the next 12 months; DBS, UBS GWM, Deutsche Bank WM, BNP Paribas WM, and Bank of Singapore react to the US midterm election results and discuss their potential effect on US equities; and Pictet WM believes economic data points to solid momentum in Japan’s economy. Standard Chartered […]

The post CIO Weekly – November 2018 Week 1 appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

This week: Pictet WM’s Chen Dong comments on China’s financial markets; Deutsche Bank WM shares its views on the Brazilian market; Bank of Singapore says additional stimulus is likely to diminish after the US mid-terms; and Standard Chartered PB sees further gains in gold prices. Pictet WM: “Limited room” for PBoC to ease policy further Although China’s central bank has been […]

The post CIO Weekly – October 2018 Week 5 appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Asian private clients are re-engaging the US growth stock market following the sector’s recent and significant pullback, according to asset manager T. Rowe Price. “I get the impression that Asia’s private banking clients are now more interested in US equities versus six months ago when they only saw them as plainly expensive,” Julian Cook, portfolio specialist for US large cap […]

The post Asia’s PB investors keen to regain US growth exposure: T. Rowe Price appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has inked a fintech collaboration deal with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to promote fintech innovation, share insights, and facilitate referrals across the two jurisdictions. Ravi Menon, MAS’s managing director, and J. Christopher Giancarlo, chairman of the US CFTC, signed the ‘Cooperation Arrangement on Financial Technology Innovation’ in an effort to help […]

The post MAS inks fintech partnership with USA appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

UBS Global Wealth Management is urging investors not to take extra risk in the US equity market, although the bank still advises staying invested given a benign economic environment. “[Previously], if clients bought overseas equities then it was mostly the US,” Adrian Zuercher, head of asset allocation APAC, CIO office at UBS Global Wealth Management, told Asian Private Banker, adding […]

The post Don’t take extra risk in US stocks: UBS GWM’s Zuercher appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

DBS Private Bank told Asian Private Banker that the appetite for US equities from Asia’s wealthy has been strong year-to-date and that fund flows have been dominated by thematic or sectoral strategies. “We are seeing decent flows on our funds desk [over the past six months in the US equity space],” said Hou Wey Fook, chief investment officer at DBS […]

The post Demand for US equity funds dominated by thematic strategies appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Against the backdrop of escalating trade tensions, DBS is advising heavily invested clients to “take some money off the table”. The suggestion comes following the bank’s upgraded view on cash. Heading into the third quarter, the bank changed its position on what is often regarded as the safest asset class from neutral to overweight. At the same time, it went […]

The post “Take some money off the table”: DBS’s Hou appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Welcome to Asian Private Banker’s latest CIO Weekly, a focused roundup of key views and comments from private banking CIOs on the state of global markets and macroeconomics. This week: DBS Wealth Management downgrades its view on equities, UBS urges investors to stay invested and not rush to take profits, J. Safra Sarasin shares its relatively negative view on financials, […]

The post CIO Weekly – July 2018 Week 1 appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

UBS Global Wealth Management is urging investors to stay invested although the first round of US trade tariffs on Chinese imports goes into effect on Friday, which is likely to trigger further turmoil and larger drawdowns in equity markets. “Although we expect trade tensions between the US and China to be long-lasting, serving as a key risk for the region, […]

The post Profit-taking “not a good idea” despite looming tariffs: UBS GWM’s Hu appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Standard Chartered Wealth Management has reduced its Asian equity exposure to a core holding amid concerns over fund outflows. “While the earnings outlook remains robust, we note that a further sustained rally in the USD or further escalation of US-China trade tensions would pose rising risks to Asian equity performance,” the bank said in its latest Global Market Outlook Report, […]

The post StanChart WM trims Asian equity exposure amid fund outflow concern appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Key headline risks in the form of escalating trade tensions and inflation are unlikely to derail global economic expansion, at least for the next year, according to three of UBS Global Wealth Management’s most senior CIOs, who presented a benign but cautious outlook for markets at a roundtable briefing in Singapore today. “There are more challenges out there as central […]

The post Headline risks unlikely to undermine global growth story, say UBS CIOs appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

More transparency is “urgently” required if Hong Kong’s wealthy place their trust in the city’s financial advisors, according to Charles Schwab, whose recent survey found that some 78% of Hong Kong’s rising affluent feel more knowledgeable than a financial advisor. This compares to just 47% of US respondents. “From the financial services perspective, the level of fee disclosure and simplification still […]

The post More transparency needed to rebuild investor trust in HK FIs: Charles Schwab appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Welcome to Asian Private Banker’s latest CIO Weekly, a focused roundup of key views and comments from private banking CIOs on the state of global markets and macroeconomics. This week: J. Safra Sarasin shares its view on oil prices and emerging markets; Bank of Singapore comments on the European economy and the cancellation of Trump-Kim talks; UBS speaks on US-China […]

The post CIO Weekly – May 2018 Week 4 appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Welcome to Asian Private Banker’s CIO Weekly, a focused roundup of key views and comments from private banking CIOs on the state of global markets and macroeconomics. This week: LGT and J. Safra Sarasin share their tactical asset allocation updates, UBS and UBP comment on the inclusion of China A-shares in MSCI, and Julius Baer updates commodities view. LGT: US […]

The post CIO Weekly – May 2018 Week 3 appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

J. Safra Sarasin has increased equity exposure in its balanced portfolio by 2.5 percentage points, according to its current tactical asset allocation strategy and despite surging volatility in the asset class. Philipp Bärtschi, CIO at the Swiss pure play told Asian Private Banker at a briefing today that the increase was implemented through two major moves. The bank added European […]

The post J. Safra Sarasin adds equity exposure to TAA despite rising volatility appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

European equities are facing “two major challenges”, namely declining economic and earnings momentum, which are likely to prolong underperformance versus US equities, according to DBS’s CIO, Hou Wey Fook. Year-to-date, European equities have lagged their US peers, with MSCI Europe heading south by 1.86% compared MSCI USA’s 0.63% downturn. The Singaporean bank expects this trend to continue into the second […]

The post European equities face “two major challenges”: DBS CIO appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

DBS’s private banking clients, in line with the wider HNW investor space, are exercising caution towards active investments amid a climate of rising market turbulence. This is in stark contrast to 2017, according to the Singaporean bank’s CIO, Hou Wey Fook, who told Asian Private Banker that Asian investors, in general, are becoming more risk-averse following recent trade tensions and February’s […]

The post DBS’s PB clients taking measured approach to active investments as risk aversion rises appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

J. Safra Sarasin is warning investors of the risks in Malaysia, Thailand and South Korea. The bank believes the economies of these countries will suffer more from the US’s trade tariffs than China, as their exports to the US are more substantial from a GDP proportion perspective. “The threat of a global trade war is unlikely to dissipate quickly and […]

The post J. Safra Sarasin: Other Asia countries may suffer more from US tariffs appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Pictet Wealth Management says rising inflation in the US is unlikely to ‘steer’ the Fed’s current monetary policy trajectory, signalling investors could expect a steady pace in the central bank’s rate hikes this year. “While core inflation should rise to the Fed’s target in the near term, we think the Fed is going to remain cool-headed about the inflation picture […]

The post Pictet WM: Rising inflation unlikely to ‘steer’ Fed’s policy trajectory appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Now is the time for investors to give up some liquidity in financial markets in order to profit from opportunities in less liquid assets, Indosuez Wealth Management has told APB Mandate. The bank says that investors should not be overly focused on liquid assets as the opportunity cost of that liquidity could be high. This is the case even if […]

The post Indosuez: Time for investors to give up some liquidity appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Bank of Singapore (BoS) is advising clients to stay flexible as trade tensions between China and the US escalate. The bank’s latest investment call to clients has come following President Trump’s latest tariffs announcements last Thursday. However, the bank’s senior investment strategist, James Cheo says the risks of a full-blown trade war between the two countries is highly unlikely. “The […]

The post BoS: Investors should be nimble as China-US frictions rise appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Private banks in Asia say interest rate hikes in the US will happen at a faster clip than the Fed’s guidance for 2018, under the improving inflation condition and decreasing unemployment in the country. Credit Suisse Private Banking, Bank of Singapore and Pictet Wealth Management told investors they expect to see three further hikes from the Fed before the end […]

The post Rates hikes will happen at faster clip than Fed guidance appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Noah Holdings, the Chinese wealth and asset manager that ranks as China’s largest independent player, is setting up a real estate offering in the United States amidst growing demand for property-linked strategies from global Chinese HNWIs. The firm has brought in a team spearheaded by Roy Chen, who was managing director and head of US real estate for China Orient […]

The post Noah builds US real estate team for overseas advisory appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

J. Safra Sarasin is urging investors to add an investment filter for environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations when investing in the technology stocks. It said such a screening process might help them to mitigate risks, amidst the dangers for a potential correction in the sector after a recent surge in the markets. The bank’s latest call to investors has come […]

The post J. Safra Sarasin: Add an ESG filter when investing in tech appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

J. Safra Sarasin expects US equities to endure another round of volatility spikes due to a steeper yield curve and an elevated level of liquidity. “Our quantitative volatility model is now telling us that investors need to prepare for a significant upward shift in US equity volatility, starting in 2018 and manifesting its full strength in 2019,” the bank said […]

The post J. Safra Sarasin expects “significant upward shift” in US equity turbulence appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Pictet Wealth Management has revised its oil price equilibrium upwards amid a favourable environment underpinned by a combination of strong growth, substantial US fiscal stimulus, US reflation and a weak USD. Despite this, the bank noted that oil prices are already close to their long-term equilibrium prices, spelling limited upside. Pictet has revised its WTI target from US$58 to US$63 […]

The post Pictet WM: Oil price forecast revised up due to strong growth and weak USD appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Bank of Singapore believes that there is “no urgency” for the central bank to tighten faster than market expectations — despite the prediction that the Fed will hike another 25 bps next week. “A rate hike at the Fed’s policy meeting next week looks near certain, and we continue to expect four in total in 2018,” the bank said in […]

The post Bank of Singapore: Less pressure on Fed to hike rates appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Robust economic momentum and a supportive labour market should prompt the return of a “Goldilocks” economy in the US, according to Pictet Wealth Management. The private bank expects US GDP growth to reach 3.0% in 2018 — up from 2.3% in 2017. Meanwhile, the overall economy is “not (yet) overheating”, and despite solid February data on the jobs market, there is still […]

The post “Goldilocks” returns to the US: Pictet WM appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

In light of ongoing US threats to impose import tariffs, Bank of Singapore has reinforced the simple adage that “nobody wins a trade war”. The bank believes foreign governments will either choose to overlook the threats or follow up with a “mild reaction” that could prompt President Trump to react more aggressively. “[The current trade conflict] is the most important issue […]

The post Bank of Singapore: “nobody wins a trade war” appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

President Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on imported goods from China continues to dominate headlines and fixate concerns on its potential to derail global growth, but Pictet Wealth Management believes that risk remains micro rather than macro and that anti-trade rhetoric will likely be contained. “How business confidence evolves will indeed be key” According to Pictet, the current proposed tariffs […]

The post Pictet: US anti-trade rhetoric to be contained appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

The global trade outlook is heavily dependent on China’s response to recently imposed US tariffs, according to Credit Suisse, which forecasts a restrained response and advises investors to exploit the current weakness to add equity risk. Three response scenarios: symbolic, moderate and severe retaliation According to the Swiss major, a “symbolic retaliation” is the most likely response from China (at […]

The post Credit Suisse: “China to play for a draw” in rising trade tensions appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

As inflation and rate worries take centre stage, J. Safra Sarasin has offered a contrary view on equity markets, forecasting persistent downside risk and advising investors to expect broad trading ranges and to sell on rallies. “We assume that we have entered a prolonged period of higher uncertainty for equity investments, as doubts regarding inflation and rate expectations are taking […]

The post J. Safra Sarasin: Expect persistent Q2 downside risk and sell the rallies appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

New Fed Chair Jay Powell’s testimony to Congress demonstrates more of the same—gradual rate policy normalisation and a readiness to shift trajectory based on economic news flow— according to Bank of Singapore, which forecasts that this “textbook central banking” will result in raised growth and inflation projections by the FOMC and four rate hikes in 2018. “Powell downplayed the significance […]

The post Bank of Singapore: “More of the same” from Powell, expect four 2018 rate hikes appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

While Asia’s major private banks typically believe that the technical-driven sell-off has already passed, Noah Holdings’ CIO, William Ma, has told APB Mandate that the overconcentration of passive strategies is likely to trigger the next equity correction. According to Bloomberg data, more than a third of all assets in the US are in passive funds, up from about 20% a […]

The post Overconcentration of ETFs is likely to lead to next equity correction: Noah’s Ma appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Bank of Singapore is advising investors to keep a close eye on the rising US deficit on the grounds that it is likely to place upward pressure on bond yields and
 “add to the strain” on risk assets overall. US government debt spiked higher after the financial recession in 2008, but it tends to surge even higher now after almost […]

The post BoS urges caution on surging US deficit appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

UBS Wealth Management is urging investors to carefully monitor bond yields as higher than expected borrowing costs are likely to trigger another pullback in equity markets. The recent volatility in the equity market drew marked attention from investors, with the VIX index trading as high as 50 – a level only seen during the 2011 European debt crisis and the […]

The post UBS WM urges investors to monitor bond yields appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

UBP believes it is “reasonable” to expect US 10-year Treasury yields to surge to 3.0-3.5% over the coming months in line with an increase in core inflation expectations. US bond yields started to rise in the second half of 2017 in reaction to the Fed’s monetary policy normalisation. The US 10-year Treasury yields increased from 2.0% in September 2017 to […]

The post UBP: 3-3.5% US 10yr Treasury yields a reasonable expectation appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Despite the current low US macro economy volatility, Pictet Wealth Management believes that it can slowly pick up with increased US GDP growth. Financial markets, notably the US stock market has experienced a brutal pullback over the past week, driving the VIX index to a record high in over five years. At the macroeconomic level, notably the US payroll data, […]

The post Stock market volatility reflects increasing macro turbulence? appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Bank of Singapore has upgraded its Asian currency forecast on the back of a growing global economy and the tightening cycle within Asian central banks. Since the fourth quarter of 2017, markets have seen an uptick for most Asian currencies, underpinned by benign growth recovery, rising commodity prices, and relatively dovish developed market (DM) central banks, along with a weakening […]

The post Bank of Singapore upgrades Asian FX appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Revising its earlier expectation of three rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in 2018, Pictet Wealth Management is now calling four, amid what the bank says is healthier employment data in the US indicating more room for policy tightening. The Swiss bank’s revised forecast came after the release of the US’s latest employment report, which showed the country’s payroll has expanded […]

The post US’s solid wage growth to lead to more hawkish stance in 2018 appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Despite investor concerns over a near-term market correction stemming from escalated valuations across most asset classes, J. Safra Sarasin argues that financial markets are still very much behaving as they were in 2005 and that there is still some way to go till the next crisis or recession. Central banks have room to pull back their stimulus policies gradually if […]

The post J. Safra Sarasin: Financial market shifting back to 2005 appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

US inflation is now approaching the Fed target of 2%, pressuring bond markets and potentially pushing 10-year Treasury yields to 3% by the end of the year, according to Bank of Singapore. Inflation drivers: March 2017 anomaly, oil prices and import pressure “Inflation has been running well below the Fed’s 2% target over the past year, but this is set […]

The post Bank of Singapore: It’s “easy to see” 3% year-end yield for 10Y UST appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

J. Safra Sarasin is urging investors to tilt back into value stocks, as the bank believes that growth stocks, driven by technology sector have entered their later stages. Growth stocks outperformed value equities last year at a significant level, especially in the US and emerging markets (EMs) where the technology sector has pushed the market to a series of record highs. […]

The post J. Safra Sarasin: Tilt back to value stocks appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

“The US economy was not firing on all cylinders in 2017,” says Pictet, pointing out that last year’s growth was consistent with a trajectory it has held since the beginning of the recovery. To arrive at this conclusion, the bank used current estimates from the Atlanta Fed, which are close to its own, at 2.3% up from 2016’s 1.5%, when […]

The post Pictet Wealth Management: 2017 US economy “was not firing on all cylinders” appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

UBS Wealth Management is urging investors not to exit from the equity market “too soon” on the grounds that we are still in the middle of the global business cycle. 2017 was very much an equity year, with the MSCI World index recording a 22.4% return. Due to significant equity price gains, markets have become increasingly concerned about valuations. “Although […]

The post We’re still in the middle of the global business cycle: UBS’s Hu appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Despite market hesitation over the impact of US tax reforms, J. Safra Sarasin believes that cuts will fuel another rally for US equity markets going forward, notably for US small-cap companies. Donald Trump finally delivered on his tax reform promise by passing a US$1.5 trillion tax reform bill last month, representing the most significant “overhaul” of the tax code since […]

The post J. Safra Sarasin: US tax reforms to fuel another equity rally appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Underpinned by lower default rates and stronger technicals, European high yield (HY) bonds have become more attractive to Asian private investors, with US HY retreating over the past few months, according to data provided by fundinfo, the internet traffic data provider. European high yield bond funds currently account for almost 20% of total traffic share, surging from around 7% in […]

The post AM Heat Map: European HY gains traction from US HY spillover appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

The latest rate hike from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), in response to the Fed’s 25 bps rate increase, shows China’s determination to continue with monetary tightening going forward, says DBS. Hours after the Fed’s quarter percentage-point move, the PBoC edged borrowing costs higher, with the 7-day reverse repo rate, 28-day reverse repo rate, and 1-year rate of medium-term […]

The post DBS: Latest PBoC rate hike portents continued tightening in China appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Half of Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s (GSAM) net cross-border mutual fund inflows year-to-date have gone into actively managed equity strategies, of which a “significant proportion” have come from Asian private clients. As of the end of August, the asset manager has seen US$8.1 billion in net sales of actively management mutual funds, with actively managed equity products accounting for US$4.0 […]

The post Asian private clients represent “significant” proportion of inflows into GSAM active equity strategies appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Against a robust global economic backdrop, Credit Suisse has revealed its five key investment themes for 2018 that the bank believes will benefit from a sustained solid growth story. Theme 1: EM winners Emerging markets (EMs) have performed “extremely well” in 2017, with MSCI Emerging Markets Index recording around 30% returns year-to-date. Driven by growth momentum, Credit Suisse expects next year […]

The post Credit Suisse reveals its five investment themes for 2018 appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Although the S&P 500 continues to grind to new highs, Morgan Stanley believes that the largest single country market will no longer act as a top source of equity returns and will be “the worst performer” in the coming five years. US equities: “Worst performer” in the next five years According to Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist […]

The post US equities will be “worst performer” over next five years: Morgan Stanley’s global CIO appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

With hard economic data confirming a strengthening of the global business cycle, especially in developed markets, Pictet Wealth Management expects DM equities to surge “at the same pace as” their earnings growth. “Recent hard data confirms that inflation pressure remains mild in both the US and the euro area,” the wealth manager said in its latest investment note. “We expect […]

The post Pictet WM: DM equities to surge at same pace of earnings growth appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Persistently strong data and signals in the face of already elevated levels of global growth may warrant vertigo, according to Julius Baer. However, all signs point to further acceleration in 2018, led by the US. Global growth: More acceleration to come from US “The most recent business climate reading has once again been remarkably strong despite already elevated levels,” says […]

The post Julius Baer: Vertigo is “a natural reflex” as global growth outlook accelerates appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Despite concerns over a US equity market correction, J. Safra Sarasin describes it as a “bull market where nobody is buying” and believes that there is still upside room for the asset class going forward. US households, assets managers, and foreign investors have behaved as “reluctant” US equity investors during the past few years, J. Safra Sarasin points out. “US […]

The post J. Safra Sarasin: US equities a “bull market where nobody is buying” appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Julius Baer expects the stimulus policies from the Trump administration, notably tax reforms, to further boost the country’s economy, which is likely to see a “renaissance of the reflation story”. “Tax reforms or tax cuts, infrastructure investment, tighter immigration and more restrictions or tariffs on US imports add significantly to the reflationary momentum the US economy is currently enjoying as the […]

The post Julius Baer expects “renaissance of the reflation story” in the US appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

Pictet Wealth Management believes that there is still some “juice” left in the US’ business cycle, as reflected by current macroeconomic data. “Economic indicators suggest that the expansionary phase of this business cycle still has some fuel: initial jobless claims remain near historical lows, job openings continue to nudge up, and temporary employment remains on a strong upward trend. ” […]

The post Pictet WM: Still some “juice” left in US business cycle appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

More Asian private investors are accessing developed market (DM) high yield (HY) bonds via multi-strategy platforms instead of concentrating on a specific market, according to Barings. “[Multi-strategy platforms] allow them to dial up or dial down their exposure to Europe or the US, depending on which market offers the best spread opportunity,” Martin Horne, head of European high yield investments […]

The post Asian investors increasingly using multi-strategy platforms to access DM HY bonds: Barings appeared first on Asian Private Banker.

On the back of stronger US growth momentum in the fourth quarter, Pictet Wealth Management has raised the country’s GDP growth forecast for 2017 and 2018 to 2.3% and 2.0%, up from 2.2% and 1.7%, respectively. “Global growth is picking up and it seems to be providing a stronger impetus to the US economy than we expected, both directly via […]

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As a non-signatory to the incoming Common Reporting Standard (CRS) regime, the US is becoming a “favourable” trust jurisdiction for many wealthy Asian families, says Neville Cen, head of private client services for North Asia at financial services firm Amicorp. Cen tells Asian Private Banker that high net worth individuals (HNWIs) in China and other parts of the region are […]

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J. Safra Sarasin believes that sound fundamentals and technicals bode well for US equities going forward, and that the asset class is showing “no sign of reaching a top”. “The acceleration in the global manufacturing cycle accelerated in 3Q17 and is likely to carry on with strong momentum into early 2018,” the bank said in its latest investment note. “The […]

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Pictet Wealth Management says it is doubtful about President Donald Trump’s ability to push his latest tax reforms through the US Congress, with the private bank maintaining a “prudent” GDP growth forecast of 1.7% for 2018. Pictet WM remains bullish about short-term growth (2017 GDP growth forecast of 2.2%) but is less optimistic about the US’ growth prospects for next […]

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Geopolitical risks – most notably escalating tensions between North Korea and the US – could offset the “positive” news from Fed chair Janet Yellen that the strength of the US economy and the healthy labour market warrant gradual increases in interest rates, according to LGT. North Korea’s foreign minister said on Monday that a tweet posted by US President Donald […]

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Deutsche Bank Wealth Management says that the strengthening of the euro has put downward pressure on European equities, which need a “trigger” to move significantly higher. “Reduced European political risk has benefited the EUR but not European equities,” the bank said in its latest investment note. “The latter have lagged attractive valuations.” The P/B ratio of the S&P 500 Index […]

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Shortly after hurricanes Harvey and Irma made landfall in southern US states, Bank of Singapore has said in an investment note that natural disasters have a limited impact on the resilient US economy. “Two major hurricanes in the same quarter – and maybe more to come – will certainly drag down US economic activity in 3Q2017 and probably push up […]

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Julius Baer believes that gold prices have “run out of steam” despite the weakened US dollar and tensions between the US and North Korea. “While there is a good chance of no major announcements in terms of central bank policy [at the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting], we still see the dollar undervalued at the current point in time,” the pure […]

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Pictet Wealth Management believes that the US Federal Reserve is caught in an “acute dilemma” due to a combination of “loose” financial conditions and low inflation. “Despite a few Fed rate hikes since end-2015, financial conditions have remained very loose,” the bank said in a research note, adding that the prevailing financial landscape is supportive of higher asset prices – […]

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The approaching debt limit, “negative seasonality” and tightening policies are the major risks facing the US equity market, which has otherwise benefited from better-than-expected second-quarter earnings releases, according to Deutsche Bank Wealth Management. “As regards seasonality, over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has seen its worst two months of returns in August and September; defensive sectors (e.g. utilities and […]

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J. Safra Sarasin says global equity markets face downside risks as they move through the “seasonally weakest part of the year”, and the bank plans to take advantage of sell-offs by adding exposure towards major indices. “Our equity scoring models confirm the hypothesis of some late 3Q17 weakness, while remaining constructive over the medium term
,” the bank said in its […]

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As tensions rise between the US and North Korea, Bank of Singapore believes the US is likely to increase its defence spending, which would threaten the US’ tax reform programme. “Whether Trump’s rhetoric towards North Korea is just a ‘wag the dog’ attempt to distract attention from his domestic difficulties or something more serious, it seems likely that military spending […]

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DBS says investors should remain mindful of geopolitical risks over coming months, particularly as tensions rise between the US and North Korea. “Despite the market turbulence, it is evident from the magnitude of last week’s correction that investors are still expecting
 an eventual peaceful resolution to the crisis,” the bank said in its latest investment note. “Time will tell if […]

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As tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, Bank of Singapore says investors can use put options with downside risk hedges to mitigate against tail risks. US President Donald Trump stepped up his rhetoric against North Korea last week, declaring that he would deploy “fire and fury like the world has never seen” if North Korea does not give […]

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Pictet Wealth Management has bought put options on the S&P 500 to mitigate against downside risk, despite supportive stock market fundamentals. “After a strong rise, risk assets have been losing momentum as valuations remain high and risks persist,” the bank said in its latest investment note. “Less complacency and more new catalysts will be needed to ensure the health of […]

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Investors should take advantage of the low volatility environment while it lasts, according to James Cheo, investment strategist at Bank of Singapore, who notes that the US will soon reach its debt ceiling and this will likely stir up uncertainty. “Before the market starts pricing in the uncertainty of the debt ceiling, investors can use this time to capitalise on […]

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DBS says that US equities are caught between the “cross-currents” of favourable earnings and jobs growth momentum on the one hand and heightened geopolitical uncertainties on the other. “The current earnings reporting season has reached an advanced stage and on the whole, US earnings momentum remains upbeat,” the bank said in its latest investment note. Sentiment was also given a […]

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Despite the fact that volatility remains low, private banks in Asia have increased their allocations towards cash for their balanced risk portfolios, according to APB Mandate data, which indicates risk aversion amongst the region’s private banking clients. Deutsche Bank Wealth Management upped the cash allocation of its US dollar profile portfolio to 10.5% in July from 6.5% in June, the […]

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DBS says that a withdrawal of quantitative easing is not on the cards in the foreseeable future, particularly on the part of the ECB and BoJ. This comes as global equities grind higher thanks to accommodative monetary policies and upbeat corporate earnings “Both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB) maintained their overall accommodative stance, as […]

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A divergence in valuations and monetary policy strategies means European and EM equities should outperform the US market, according to Lombard Odier. “The relative cheapness of European equities exists despite supportive underlying economic fundamentals, and the fact that European companies enjoy much greater exposure to the strengthening recovery in the emerging world and continued monetary stimulus,” says the bank, adding […]

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A repeal of the US estate tax would be a welcome development for investors in Asia – particularly those with real estate holdings – though experts say that wealthy clients in the region should take a cautious approach to restructuring their American assets if the mooted changes see the light of day. The new US administration, led by Donald Trump, has […]

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While the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone buoyed US stocks last week, DBS believes equities remain susceptible to a pullback 
in the near term. “Challenges remain that given current valuations, equity markets will still run the risk of a near-term correction should corporate earnings disappoint in coming quarters,” DBS says in its latest investment note. The S&P 500 Index pushed higher […]

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European equities remain more attractive than those in the US, according to Julius Baer, which notes that while corporate earnings growth will likely fall short of expectations in both countries this year, European earnings will outperform on a relative basis. “For the full year 2017, our models confirm earnings growth of 5-6% in the US and circa 8% in the […]

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Amid the low interest rate environment, developed market inflation is expected to rise materially in 2017, according to UBS Wealth Management, which forecasts full-year CPI readings of 2.3% and 1.6% in the US and EU, respectively. The bank believes the low interest rate environment will buoy global equities. “Corporate earnings are rising in most regions, supported by strengthening consumer demand, […]

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Citi Private Bank’s global chief investment strategist tells APB Mandate that the American bank is looking to increase allocations to international equities, which offer better returns than the lender’s home market. “Economic activity is accelerating outside the US, such as Japan, China and Europe,” says Steven Wieting, global chief investment strategist at Citi Private Bank. Economic data in Europe and […]

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