Despite the shadows of a potential AI bubble and persistent valuation jitters, Asia’s chief investment offices are entering 1Q26 with a resolute pro-risk tilt in equities, according to Asian Private Banker‘s review of major house views.
While most banks are clinging to US earnings growth as a principal driver, a deepening rift has emerged over the role of fixed income and the once-bulletproof private markets.
Underweight Neutral Overweight| EFG | HSBC | Standard Chartered | DBS | J. Safra Sarasin | Citi | UOB | Morgan Stanley | Pictet | Maybank | BNP Paribas | Barclays | Indosuez | LGT | Hang Seng | UBP | CIMB | BOCHK | Julius Baer | Bank of Singapore | |
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US equities consensus remains
Despite heightened concern about stretched valuations in the major index-dominating AI sector, banks remain optimistic about global and US equities, with most holding overweight or neutral views on these categories.
Neutral on overall equities and overweight on US equities, Citi believes earnings growth in the US will be the principal driver of returns, while fundamentals continue to favour the technology and AI sector despite possible near-term fatigue and general elevated valuations in the equity space.
Echoing the stance, Morgan Stanley expects reaccelerated growth in 2026, with tailwinds from stimulus, deregulation, and continued AI adoption in the US. The bank is also overweight on select industrial policy benefits and regional banks.
DBS lone bull
Compared with other asset classes, a greater number of banks held an underweight position in fixed income due to increasingly volatile and tight credit spreads, calling for more disciplined credit selection.
Underweight on fixed income, Pictet anticipates rates to fall by less than market expectations, while Citi believes markets that have priced in rapid rate cuts could experience near-term repricing, especially for shorter-term bonds.
Separating itself from the pack, DBS is the only bank explicitly overweighting overall fixed income, advising on quality plays for the asset class.
Bearish Barclays
With the democratisation of private market assets in recent years, clients are starting to raise questions about over opacity, overcrowding, and undisclosed risks. Similarly, banks are exercising greater caution regarding the optimism seen in private markets, maintaining a mixed outlook between overweight and neutral.
Neutral on both private credit and private equity, Standard Chartered believes private assets could provide a portfolio hedge and an illiquidity premium, but is concerned about the potential worsening of credit and growth quality.
Underweight on both private equity and credit, Barclays noted the higher opportunity cost of alternative trading strategies amid higher-rate environments.
Gold standard
While gold reached record highs in 2025 amid geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, economic uncertainties, and expectations of rate cuts, most banks maintained their overweight view on the precious metal, betting these factors would persist in 2026.
Bank of China (Hong Kong) believes gold will retain its long-term bullish outlook. But instead of chasing record highs, the bank advises clients to accumulate dips.
As for Barclays, while the bank differs from most banks that are overweight in the asset class by holding a neutral view, the UK lender sees gold as the preferred direct commodity exposure, a risk-mitigating asset and a dollar diversifier.